Publication: The Demise of the Caliphate, Quo Vadis ISIS? by Ely Karmon
As the two coalitions against ISIS, the one led by the United States (is it indeed a coalition?) and the other one led by Russia and Iran, are close to defeat the organization on its territorial basis in Iraq and Syria and conquer the two major stronghold cities, Mosul and Raqqa, politicians, military experts and academic pundits are asking themselves what will be the future of its scattered forces and especially the impact of its “ideology” on future events in the Greater Middle East and beyond. This paper presents some of the possible scenarios in such a dynamic and complex situation. However, some important territories where ISIS associates, leaders and individual fighters could find suitable ground to build a new territorial basis or stage from there major local or international terrorist attacks will be the subject of a follow-up paper. … Download Full Publication (published first at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Dec 19, 2016)